Poker · resolved market
Mariano vs Jungleman: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3deff194295d3b829a0331727530f2154c0d47299d087ff3f48a2c15a2aae8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Junglemanof Mariano, Jungleman
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Jungleman | 49c | 1,592$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Jungleman | 50c | 1,106$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Mariano | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f4fbacked Mariano | 54c | 922.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Mariano | 53c | 765$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Mariano | 56c | 648$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Jungleman | 46c | 585.88$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Jungleman | 45c | 564.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Mariano | 50c | 512.59$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Mariano | 22c | 500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Jungleman | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Mariano | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Jungleman | 55c | 388.72$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Mariano | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Jungleman | 44c | 280$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Mariano | 51c | 276.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…31f4backed Jungleman | 50c | 239.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Jungleman | 49c | 219.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Mariano | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Mariano | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Jungleman | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…ad10backed Jungleman | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91cf…5c83backed Mariano | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Jungleman | 47c | 95.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Jungleman | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Jungleman | 51c | 83.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Jungleman | 46c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Jungleman | 49c | 78.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Jungleman | 44c | 78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Jungleman | 43c | 77.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Mariano | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Mariano | 51c | 64.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Mariano | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Mariano | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Jungleman | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed Jungleman | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Jungleman | 43c | 33.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Jungleman | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Jungleman | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Mariano | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Mariano | 57c | 17.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.