TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,489,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,323,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,489,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes0c367,501$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.56035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64fe…e618backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff2…d10fbacked Yes0c85,944$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes1c70,225$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.184744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8070…f56bbacked Yes1c64,915$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…05cdbacked Yes0c60,394$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9515…dd3dbacked Yes0c48,500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes1c47,619$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c42,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes0c29,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes2c25,287$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.591637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf532…70eabacked Yes1c25,012$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes0c24,671$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c21,900$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.317521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes0c21,016$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.46710.4%7 W · 60 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-68.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes0c20,428$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19e…53cebacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes3c19,998$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.35545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes0c17,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe7a…332abacked Yes0c14,418$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28b…60f0backed Yes0c12,200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866b…7411backed Yes0c11,803$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…df3bbacked Yes1c11,777$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes1c11,345$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2a8…34f5backed Yes0c11,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5510…2083backed Yes1c10,540$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac86…f3c7backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…4fd0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee3…ba7dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b2…77d5backed Yes0c9,566$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes3c8,966$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.472147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4db6…9842backed Yes2c8,052$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes2c6,796$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.33450%17 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ec…1b42backed Yes3c6,789$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c6,726$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.762114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes2c6,503$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…4644backed Yes1c6,146$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab9…9d74backed Yes0c5,780$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4f…c055backed Yes1c5,466$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.06450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c5,414$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6c…13e6backed Yes1c5,111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f9…99b9backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes3c4,812$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.156132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…67abbacked Yes0c4,583$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes2c4,567$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.348331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2701…6d65backed Yes0c4,510$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes4c4,367$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.724650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes0c4,186$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd280…ebd5backed Yes4c3,824$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes0c3,446$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.86119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes1c3,434$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes2c3,428$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f8…c69ebacked Yes2c3,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd15f…2cacbacked Yes3c2,743$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b7d…79cebacked Yes1c2,651$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x02e9…443bbacked Yes2c2,520$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes3c2,440$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c2,400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6646.3%4 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa822…6342backed Yes1c2,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4666…1a17backed Yes1c2,206$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes3c2,008$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8190…b247backed Yes3c2,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.05580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes3c2,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde35…e2ffbacked Yes1c1,934$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes3c1,761$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.471428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da7…c168backed Yes3c1,741$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes2c1,723$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f0…5d58backed Yes3c1,708$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes3c1,667$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes3c1,600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes2c1,315$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes2c1,309$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes1c1,254$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9716833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9078…fb78backed Yes5c1,202$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes2c999.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.162114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3672…530fbacked Yes3c908.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991e…fc54backed Yes3c752.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8025…00dabacked Yes2c736.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-75.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x353c…6803backed Yes3c721.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes2c550$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4592…77aebacked Yes4c457.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2134…0734backed Yes3c439.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid+8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c364.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6918026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f7…15febacked Yes5c278.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.