AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0da7cad7cd1a301816ab724c9cfc5453bfe43f39412966cbe65f0c0c7913d9d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,166$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.44 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 8,477$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 2,942$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 6c | 2,186$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 8c | 2,160$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,129$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,486$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,019$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 953.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 2c | 861.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 715.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…7e2bbacked Yes | 3c | 698$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…f89fbacked Yes | 3c | 693$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 691.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf7…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 666$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…3effbacked Yes | 4c | 613$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 590.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0087…fc86backed Yes | 4c | 576$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef7…b515backed Yes | 4c | 570$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 534.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 515.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 5c | 514.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 475.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…1c92backed Yes | 4c | 443.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…568dbacked Yes | 5c | 420$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 6c | 376.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes | 11c | 270.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 6c | 173.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes | 19c | 147.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…ea20backed Yes | 20c | 100.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.