Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96390662baa511da675e9161ae31fcf083da8eb5fccfc060b179f3c6da29460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed5a…c744backed No | 27c | 2,888$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 79c | 2,693$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 17c | 1,373$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 24c | 1,194$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…edabbacked No | 1c | 893.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…288abacked Yes | 68c | 812.96$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 63c | 804.09$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 63c | 760.69$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 76c | 651$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 16c | 475$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 474.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 40c | 468.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 76c | 352$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…d141backed No | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 24c | 246.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 76c | 191$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…fc1abacked No | 32c | 186.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 61c | 181.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 11c | 143.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed No | 29c | 116.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 69c | 112.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 25c | 94.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 67.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 79c | 65.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af7…e793backed No | 49c | 61.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 28c | 52.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 51.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 76c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe780…6982backed No | 56c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 59c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b0…4d24backed Yes | 70c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 59c | 18.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.