Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0102fa45d51886034629a0054ab2e2a674cc508cabf40160624216ca9e5f080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1897…c285backed Yes | 36c | 1,398$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 64c | 745$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 11c | 673$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 64c | 488$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 432$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 35c | 399.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 12c | 296$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…d141backed No | 64c | 227.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 224.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 65c | 166.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 64c | 165$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 148.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 14c | 143.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 95.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 29c | 64.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…8444backed No | 80c | 62.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…bd6abacked Yes | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…8a23backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 65c | 39.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed No | 78c | 30.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.