Music · resolved market
Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8474493c0295c921b05ca9e41cf2b7b2dead7eea61fc1be719f8341de8b1eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 32c | 2,694$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 38c | 1,638$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 42c | 1,341$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 68c | 906$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 68c | 901$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 68c | 887$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed No | 30c | 815.79$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 62c | 799$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked No | 62c | 784$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 62c | 732$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 58c | 664$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 71c | 408.56$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…6afcbacked Yes | 68c | 65.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 45.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?this page
- Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.