Us Politics · resolved market
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113a175638c1871bb60512e7733cb954be3d48f470ba3c418f48bcf04c177258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 44c | 879$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 56c | 866$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 44c | 849$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 56c | 847$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 56c | 821$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 44c | 806$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed Yes | 15c | 401$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +312.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 15c | 382$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 22c | 223.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970a…b6b1backed Yes | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 13c | 159$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 41c | 154.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 13c | 148$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…6eefbacked Yes | 52c | 96.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 47c | 70.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 77c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 44c | 31.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…fe90backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…beeabacked Yes | 79c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?this page
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be between 16,000,000 and 16,500,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be less than 16,000,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.