Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f76a4336ebb545081b3baf5f34566d4bc6bec0d61c8e445412768077573bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $684,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa44…0a39backed No | 5c | 141,447$7,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,096.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 12c | 13,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 17c | 5,729$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 22c | 5,250$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e4…beedbacked No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 63c | 2,433$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 59c | 1,607$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 58c | 1,449$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 1,285$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 14c | 1,167$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 58c | 1,096$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.05 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 32c | 1,035$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 77c | 930.52$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 26c | 834$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 41c | 789$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 26c | 769$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 26c | 759$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 74c | 747$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed No | 42c | 652$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 42c | 635$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 7c | 570$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 70c | 477.98$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 8c | 458$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 19c | 434$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 70c | 391$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 30c | 389$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 51c | 345.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 77c | 317.73$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 80c | 294$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 276.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 58c | 274.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 13c | 260$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed No | 40c | 258.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 60c | 206$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 66c | 182.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked No | 42c | 162$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 142.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 14c | 136.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 35c | 120.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 119.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 115.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 24c | 104.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 43c | 84.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 74c | 84.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 80c | 80.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…48eebacked Yes | 63c | 65.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed Yes | 72c | 59.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked Yes | 66c | 56.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 55.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 48.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 73c | 47.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 63c | 40.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…c189backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed Yes | 63c | 27.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed Yes | 77c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 77c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…ac85backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…7fecbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.