Fed Rates · resolved market
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a56c2262bd104bca10387b9678fd154ce3111b5cc4de08f1feb728e911ce737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $787,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $438,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa44…0a39backed Yes | 5c | 95,044$5,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,218.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 2c | 54,324$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 9c | 26,121$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…8a4abacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e4…beedbacked Yes | 11c | 6,356$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 9c | 4,859$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,442.47 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 79c | 3,300$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.9 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 5c | 2,283$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,136$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…1833backed Yes | 1c | 1,714$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,711$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 78c | 1,410$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 48c | 1,112$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked Yes | 7c | 1,104$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…ee17backed Yes | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 880.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked Yes | 7c | 834$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed No | 45c | 615.58$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 76c | 529.98$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.96 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 10c | 503$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 363.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked Yes | 21c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 70c | 124.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 15c | 95.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 20c | 94.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 89.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked No | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 72.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…075bbacked No | 30c | 72.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…e691backed No | 33c | 62.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 30c | 46.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?this page
- Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?Yes won
- Will three people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.