Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47bae8d2c6f217990fb734f8b421226cd19a6bf2d485792c441ffbeaa49a90ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,390$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,721$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 68c | 1,652$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 68c | 1,651$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 32c | 797$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 32c | 722$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 28c | 213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 198.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 31c | 191.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed Yes | 29c | 134.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 32c | 132$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…9ea2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked Yes | 51c | 98.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 68c | 69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e9…b678backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 51.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 37.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes | 33c | 36.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 32.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd693…339dbacked No | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 74c | 24.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 74c | 23.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?Yes won
- Will three people dissent the April Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.