China Taiwan · resolved market
Chinese or Russian athlete kicked out of 2026 Winter Games for doping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241d9a2d8d00d259961543ccfa18f87c66d5e1d61edb8504157fa8c9c8313cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,435$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…21a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,222$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 479.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 13c | 416$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 18c | 274$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes | 13c | 247$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 6c | 230.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 13c | 112.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…3893backed Yes | 15c | 111.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed No | 65c | 99.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 65c | 85.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 84.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…511fbacked Yes | 37c | 81.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…7a6fbacked Yes | 36c | 71.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 69c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 45.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2a07backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…e744backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 62c | 31.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.