Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09fc859b4790bc724ded3ecdfb396c1a2669d250295745b047a6e13bc84a412c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 57c | 1,699$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…1334backed Yes | 79c | 1,513$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 57c | 1,125$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 43c | 909$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 43c | 836$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 57c | 598$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 57c | 593$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 43c | 592$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 586.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 43c | 585$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 43c | 568$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 57c | 554$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 6c | 547.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 43c | 546$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 43c | 533$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 13c | 384.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 69c | 317.17$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked No | 17c | 270.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 13c | 225$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 209.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 80c | 208.06$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 61c | 171.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24a…b6f2backed No | 29c | 169.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 168.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed No | 15c | 165.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 12c | 165.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 38c | 157.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 35c | 113.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 15c | 99.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 12c | 93.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 77.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 14c | 75.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 77c | 71.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…0a84backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…73eabacked Yes | 61c | 55.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7212…d887backed No | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 47.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…2ca0backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 46c | 22.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.