Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153931125b120b9d1b28c6d7ca4048d3d6d1b98c6aa78e44919422f3f1b79067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70d7…1334backed Yes | 66c | 1,051$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ff…a851backed No | 15c | 887.23$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 24c | 863.74$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed No | 37c | 840.81$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 11c | 454.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…7ae6backed No | 11c | 365.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 62c | 335.26$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 66c | 301.29$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 24c | 269.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 63c | 220.26$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 199.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…09cbbacked Yes | 73c | 191.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3c90backed No | 27c | 191.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 187.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…0a84backed Yes | 66c | 160.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 69c | 159.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 66c | 152.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…3fb5backed Yes | 78c | 134.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 127.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked No | 23c | 116.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 116.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed No | 47c | 106.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 36c | 104.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…5f71backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 24c | 97.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…3094backed No | 16c | 90.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 19c | 86.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 45c | 82.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 37c | 65.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 30c | 64.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 53c | 62.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 62.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 29c | 52.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…73eabacked Yes | 53c | 41.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 80c | 34.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 71c | 34.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 71c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 79c | 27.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 78c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 60c | 20.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…7794backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 78c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.