Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577366f9e38c1fbf43a0ae8d262b06d1f6c8aafa1f1b6b680870b186537f2624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,348 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 2,090$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 1,571$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.33 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…54b9backed No | 27c | 1,534$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…08e1backed Yes | 73c | 1,534$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,251$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 916.62$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.69 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 59c | 377.56$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 17c | 367.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed Yes | 72c | 355.17$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…a8c0backed Yes | 48c | 345.84$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 11c | 340.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 28c | 323.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…455abacked No | 28c | 307.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f8…f5eebacked Yes | 72c | 307.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…3fb5backed No | 49c | 276.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 14c | 265$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 80c | 226.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 199.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…f531backed No | 26c | 191.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…1cffbacked Yes | 74c | 191.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 73c | 186.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed No | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 25c | 177.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a7eabacked No | 30c | 141.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 37c | 112.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 19c | 106.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 104.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 24c | 101.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 70c | 99.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…adafbacked No | 22c | 96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 21c | 91.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed No | 22c | 89.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…dcc3backed No | 57c | 84.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 82.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed No | 62c | 80.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 80.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 41c | 73.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c3…788abacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 37.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 67c | 37.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…706abacked Yes | 76c | 35.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 32c | 33.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 63c | 24.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66d…9fdfbacked No | 49c | 22.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +58%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…d80dbacked Yes | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 62c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.