Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f9b44b6bf86867e582febc1b317d078a39cce602c3d33c2316882e6a49a0cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 12c | 1,475$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 1c | 1,094$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 711.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 11c | 580$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 3c | 520.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 485.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b5…009fbacked No | 18c | 439.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 12c | 385.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 6c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 6c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…f99bbacked No | 14c | 218.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 7c | 200.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 5c | 197.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 190.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 7c | 173.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 161.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 9c | 161.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 8c | 140.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed No | 18c | 106.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…ae17backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 99.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…f846backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.