Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4901a6aaf188d71c6a4579bcd89b56d69c4cc33cb8e18a09a599668d0485fe71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 3,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 20c | 430.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 3c | 412$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 10c | 397.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 19c | 166$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 20c | 135.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 79c | 108.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…1334backed Yes | 79c | 93.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 90.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…f801backed No | 23c | 85.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…4ad4backed No | 24c | 80.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 65c | 76.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…44b9backed No | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 19c | 57.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 50c | 50.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…8c12backed Yes | 50c | 38.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…8663backed Yes | 50c | 38.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…735ebacked Yes | 50c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.