Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9347459a34932a7562682d59731a8da97b3cfad20cfb9969324b6463f0de0ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,515 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4669…99c0backed Yes | 37c | 1,112$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 69c | 973$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 31c | 973$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 63c | 863.9$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.37 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 69c | 830$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 17c | 799.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.98 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…f628backed Yes | 37c | 789.34$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a4f9backed No | 6c | 470.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 428.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 78c | 389.16$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…0a84backed No | 32c | 354.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 3c | 334.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.92 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 14c | 324$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 319.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 62c | 314.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 9c | 309.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 14c | 306$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 14c | 290$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +441.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 31c | 279$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 31c | 277$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 31c | 274$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…858fbacked No | 11c | 273.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +355.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd915…c43fbacked Yes | 80c | 218.06$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 213.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 79c | 199.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 199.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…e742backed No | 67c | 195.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 6c | 194.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 29c | 193.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 6c | 182.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…f99bbacked No | 17c | 180.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…400bbacked No | 47c | 179.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 12c | 157.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Yes | 8c | 150.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 147.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 10c | 146$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 18c | 131.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 30c | 119.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 86.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 85.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 17c | 75.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 65c | 59.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 31c | 58.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 27c | 54.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 54.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 44.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 62c | 35.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421a…2df4backed No | 50c | 35.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…f5a8backed No | 76c | 31.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed No | 69c | 30.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…2b9cbacked Yes | 80c | 23.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 23.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…24c3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 68c | 14.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.