Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x913ec66d60a95079b11aebf9d48455400971d2f85852092aaa5c706710a2a8af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 3c | 2,634$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 31c | 1,104$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 69c | 1,020$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 17c | 778.84$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 34c | 718.28$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.67 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 12c | 686.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 14c | 600$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 418.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…5217backed Yes | 32c | 339.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…fd85backed Yes | 6c | 291.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked Yes | 12c | 243.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 228.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 206.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 78c | 188.29$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 22c | 180$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.49 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 25c | 160.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed No | 27c | 160.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 57c | 138$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 135$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 80c | 125.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 42c | 88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 84.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes | 69c | 84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 20c | 63.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed Yes | 73c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 74c | 45.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…c7edbacked Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.