Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dded000a22579fb8246ddfdc704f276dc76c75f003803b189ba8058e693cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 4c | 4,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 69c | 1,243$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 718.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…7bdebacked Yes | 76c | 713$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 31c | 668$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked No | 31c | 652$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 446.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…0a84backed No | 23c | 359.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 33c | 302.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…3fb5backed Yes | 74c | 233.05$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed No | 49c | 192.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 29c | 156.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 8c | 138.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed Yes | 65c | 133.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 61c | 117.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked No | 34c | 86.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 55c | 82.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed No | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 78c | 51.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 59c | 49.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…0c78backed Yes | 79c | 47.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 23c | 47.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 57c | 42.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…26ccbacked Yes | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…524abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…5217backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.