Movies · resolved market
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1859ece7f01b81eaf7b2442a85c624b812a3c412492dad47a76c5f63a74a1f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 63c | 1,174$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 37c | 709$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 33c | 662$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 70c | 636.7$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 60c | 633$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…554fbacked No | 78c | 584.01$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 68c | 566$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 67c | 561.12$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.82 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 34c | 527$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 25c | 488$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 23c | 485$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 32c | 481$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 68c | 481$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 75c | 471$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked Yes | 23c | 449.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 66c | 423$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 77c | 415$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 408$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 37c | 390$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 16c | 370$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 33c | 364$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 67c | 364$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 40c | 362$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 63c | 337$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 35c | 325.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 75c | 299$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 63c | 298$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 67c | 278$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…d9ffbacked Yes | 41c | 260.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 25c | 248$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 67c | 248$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked Yes | 34c | 233$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 37c | 227$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 39c | 219.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 40c | 212$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 68c | 184$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 40c | 174$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 62c | 168.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 118.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 60c | 113.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 41c | 112.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 58c | 107.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 106.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 59c | 102.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed No | 63c | 90.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 87.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…2c86backed Yes | 31c | 63.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 38c | 62.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 45c | 62.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…691cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 55c | 49.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…79f3backed No | 58c | 44.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 40c | 40.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 35.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 51c | 22.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296c…9e76backed No | 51c | 21.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 56c | 19.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 68c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…5bbfbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…aa05backed No | 74c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Carey Mulligan win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Emily Watson win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Gwyneth Paltrow win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Odessa A'zion win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.