TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Claude 5 be released on February 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes8c1,829$145 inLost-$144.61254%1 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes10c600$60 inLost-$60229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes18c534.08$98 inLost-$97.9920130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…70b4backed Yes6c400$24 inLost-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034e…81e0backed Yes10c400$40 inLost-$40560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes6c348.63$21 inLost-$21.117824.4%19 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e70…fa96backed Yes10c296.55$30 inLost-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7369…5f41backed Yes15c245.07$37 inLost-$36.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes8c224.27$19 inLost-$19.01476.4%3 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c202$15 inLost-$15.152674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491f…a7d0backed Yes18c200$36 inLost-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…ba88backed No80c100$80 inWon+$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+189.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c93.62$11 inLost-$11.0989417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes17c73.02$13 inLost-$12.5112639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No80c40$32 inWon+$8.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ba…2af0backed No78c20$16 inWon+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.