AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1e119c12119a73d75c7f33d248ae8a2210590e741e3c39ca234efdeaff1aaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 30c | 8,942$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.27 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 75c | 3,821$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.45 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 13c | 3,060$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.07 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,755$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…97a4backed No | 31c | 1,650$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,351$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 10c | 1,208$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 50c | 1,107$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.52 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 22c | 1,017$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9d34backed Yes | 34c | 1,014$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 967.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 925$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 829.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 809.03$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.52 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…b5afbacked Yes | 35c | 783.81$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 37c | 742.76$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 736.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…d4e0backed No | 14c | 697.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 673.19$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.97 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…0fb9backed Yes | 13c | 626.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 614.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 541.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 66c | 529$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.08 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 61c | 516$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 408.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 76c | 399.11$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 369.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed Yes | 59c | 340.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 10c | 332.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 317.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…dfd7backed Yes | 31c | 317.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…5117backed No | 79c | 307.55$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked No | 37c | 290.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 287.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 23c | 280.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 20c | 249.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 210.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…fa96backed Yes | 13c | 200.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…70b4backed Yes | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 14c | 196.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 191.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc410…3370backed Yes | 30c | 186.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 17c | 171.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fc…533cbacked No | 12c | 167.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 41c | 156.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…64f4backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 139.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.81 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…2b42backed No | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…6236backed Yes | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…519bbacked Yes | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…09b4backed Yes | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…19aabacked Yes | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466d…e80dbacked Yes | 47c | 133$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…8724backed Yes | 47c | 132$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked Yes | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bc…468bbacked Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…0a67backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…bcc7backed Yes | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…72b9backed Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3278…1e42backed Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…7f6cbacked No | 53c | 123$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…d293backed Yes | 47c | 122$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…ead9backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…69febacked No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…59e7backed Yes | 47c | 119$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…d016backed No | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…e062backed Yes | 47c | 119$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f3…d947backed Yes | 47c | 119$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e19…2fe7backed No | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…7f22backed No | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…ea17backed No | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…7beabacked No | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…1a71backed No | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 115.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed Yes | 49c | 114.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…e45bbacked No | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…a00dbacked No | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…2fb4backed No | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1926…a308backed No | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…a345backed No | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…c78cbacked No | 53c | 109$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…2af8backed No | 53c | 108$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…3285backed No | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…3f22backed No | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…c30cbacked No | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89e…d36cbacked No | 22c | 96.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…308bbacked Yes | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 31c | 84.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 81.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Yes | 75c | 74.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf54…e20bbacked No | 39c | 71.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…9df2backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 65c | 54.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…d0a2backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 12, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.