AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released on February 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b33b56d46e3ea5b2a286b6888d3c8d6565be40c5d86c0666aed4e78cee91bd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,091$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 10c | 1,936$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 15c | 1,745$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 11c | 990$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 16c | 968.4$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 5c | 670.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 3c | 664.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 640$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 8c | 565.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 6c | 546.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…5628backed Yes | 5c | 519.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 505$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 4c | 473.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 78c | 439.06$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 424.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 408.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…7a2ebacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed Yes | 16c | 287.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 13c | 248$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…8664backed Yes | 6c | 216$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 200.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…fa96backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…70b4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 196.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 8c | 126.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115b…42e5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…c444backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 77c | 106.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…4448backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 23c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…bf3ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc17…3d86backed No | 78c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 5, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 12, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.