TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Claude 5 be released on February 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,509$19 inLost-$19.291867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes5c1,250$59 inLost-$595048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c800$20 inLost-$19.62522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes2c780$17 inLost-$16.95813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes12c748.07$93 inLost-$93.0620130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c499.99$21 inLost-$20.8717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes19c470.45$89 inLost-$88.9227536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c435.25$11 inLost-$11.01865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes4c430.7$16 inLost-$16.47476.4%3 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes3c421.85$11 inLost-$10.6520418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes9c410.3$35 inLost-$35.0912639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c367.57$13 inLost-$13.113042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x491f…a7d0backed Yes11c300$33 inLost-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…70b4backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes11c180$19 inLost-$19.454918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7caa…0520backed Yes7c133.67$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f02…3f39backed Yes9c111$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes17c109.99$19 inLost-$18.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes17c60$10 inLost-$10.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7538…cd15backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No79c40$32 inWon+$8.430127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No80c20$16 inWon+$4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-61.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.