NFL · resolved market
Will the San Francisco 49ers be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a76e0b88826db75df5fe5c3b1d86f9b06d3d3038895bc9ea35bfac07e2bff3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 68c | 990$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 68c | 864$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 31c | 712$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 69c | 668$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 32c | 504$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 32c | 363$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 32c | 282$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 75c | 280$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 32c | 245$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed No | 32c | 241$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 68c | 226$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 32c | 226$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 32c | 219$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the San Francisco 49ers be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?this page
- Will the San Francisco 49ers be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers be eliminated in the Divisional Round?Yes won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.