Space · resolved market
Major Space Weather event this week? (March 22-28)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de5063b735fd21f0aaaf4cb754e2a26d7f849dda64e157498a521396e63b314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,739 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 74c | 1,154$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 4c | 1,050$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 4c | 1,050$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 2c | 844.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 26c | 606$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 11c | 585$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 11c | 562$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 26c | 548$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 159$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 14c | 114.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +267%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 14c | 85.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +610.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.