TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes61c3,964$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.3723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes13c2,671$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.612630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-27.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes19c1,915$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7216417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes9c1,764$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2644224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes13c1,727$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.387517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,302$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.241,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed Yes12c1,110$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.081533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes4c1,110$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7314039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6177…c22abacked Yes11c1,102$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1790%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes12c1,062$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.28360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x874a…d584backed Yes12c1,034$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.081225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c1,011$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.352282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked Yes14c986$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.04944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes12c951.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5815023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes12c949$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4b…9e65backed Yes9c900$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes6c879$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.428538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes14c800$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c794.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.774928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes11c792$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.121442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes11c788$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.682454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes11c757.86$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.01120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Yes11c713$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.431546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes9c698.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7836626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c644.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.387135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae4…d837backed Yes15c637$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick49cpaid-86.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5421160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3859…7359backed Yes16c567$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe2…4308backed Yes5c562.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No29c557.69$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes10c539.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes11c538$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.181030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes16c503$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.482060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes14c498$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.721421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes11c480.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8124234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes14c474$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes13c469$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.972842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f4…d6debacked Yes14c430$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid+27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes12c424$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.882437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed Yes15c418$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+49.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes14c413$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.823246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c380$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.811816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes14c373.42$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.494136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c361.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes16c361$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.762254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…8234backed Yes16c353$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes11c334$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No58c331.52$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.6558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No72c330.72$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0938237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes11c327$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed Yes16c315$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes12c311$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9712138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes19c303.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.867938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes9c301.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.572438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed Yes15c301$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.151172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+84.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes15c261.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2415951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36db…74fdbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed Yes12c212$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f2…e9dabacked Yes13c200.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes12c191.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7812325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes24c185.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7412330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75f3…6bb8backed Yes13c180$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c158.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.692476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf576…d366backed Yes13c156.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.371118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed No17c150$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.53125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No17c150$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.53525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes14c144$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes30c133.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407225%18 W · 54 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No72c115.81$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c113.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6470…aac7backed Yes27c109.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes39c105.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d53…3fdfbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+408.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46450%32 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7833…d56cbacked Yes15c74.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.192133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed No74c73.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.415151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e47…a510backed No76c66.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.143647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9985…6afabacked No71c62.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.993256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes28c61.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.984072.5%29 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c59.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No62c57.91$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.956366.7%42 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No76c53.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8531728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No71c48.21$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9816173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5691…c593backed No34c37.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.132142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed No71c30.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.972948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No65c22.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.078482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xddf3…f99cbacked No71c19.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.