TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7155…d866backed No22c2,809$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No22c2,612$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4df…e4f3backed No3c1,633$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes78c1,377$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes78c1,286$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes78c1,279$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+199.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed Yes78c1,262$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88f1…8e46backed No26c1,188$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Yes74c1,128$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No1c999.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.013221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+187.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes74c990$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes78c899$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No26c872$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f2…2badbacked No22c870$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5d…5f6abacked No22c863$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed Yes78c844$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+418.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes74c839$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No26c835$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…db64backed Yes74c825$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed No26c817$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…2238backed No22c801$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07c…1307backed Yes78c791$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes74c759$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d09…42b7backed No26c739$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c1…6512backed No26c736$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes74c713$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+83.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No26c684$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No26c648$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No26c635$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes74c584$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes74c567$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+76.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No23c559.25$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4412234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed Yes74c556$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes67c551.17$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.153751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes78c518$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.965100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No22c518$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes74c483$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed No22c369$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes78c369$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.18450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed Yes74c368.55$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.65785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No10c338.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.93342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No17c281.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.73300%0 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No26c261$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed No26c254$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No22c253$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.871118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed No26c229$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.54825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No34c216.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.58923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x779d…695bbacked Yes76c214.29$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No5c211.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.02185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+276.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No29c210$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.11233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked Yes74c198$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c184.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2416334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdece…08dbbacked Yes78c170$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes74c152$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9757…2cf4backed No27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…cb87backed No27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes74c104$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233627.8%10 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-48.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed Yes74c92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked No27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No34c88.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1222640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes78c85.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No22c80.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7990%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.087710.4%8 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0206…283bbacked No22c71.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No25c60.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab41…4916backed Yes77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18b7…faccbacked No27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x937f…2ca0backed Yes72c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3406…6ce0backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff44…fa58backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes78c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked No26c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked No26c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No26c39.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes76c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes73c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53a…c0a8backed Yes77c21.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.