AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb938a51d25f8e5e10e49bb6fbb67dc4e08e67bf18d83d3dc86857a9090337cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 29c | 789$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…a1a8backed No | 80c | 706.36$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 71c | 601$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 357.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.41 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 73c | 272.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 27c | 250.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 71c | 188$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 68c | 175.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 139.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…1ecebacked Yes | 17c | 117.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 49c | 90.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 24c | 84.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 39c | 83.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…1462backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…6759backed Yes | 79c | 35.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…79fcbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b7…53acbacked Yes | 53c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 68c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?this page
- Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 15 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.