AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60cdb39032ab11fac2fe2cb210cb209f1c04868ac0183c96ba64fce21a4c4d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 31c | 2,227$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 74c | 1,777$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 11c | 1,007$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 26c | 808$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 26c | 798$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 74c | 789$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 26c | 789$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 74c | 758$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 69c | 747$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 69c | 743$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 26c | 743$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 69c | 737$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 74c | 728$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 73c | 550$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 27c | 550$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 37c | 423$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 3c | 357.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 26c | 320$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e28…7e91backed No | 76c | 176.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218a…181bbacked No | 76c | 176.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…5bb8backed No | 76c | 172.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b4…a2bcbacked No | 76c | 171.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 26c | 171$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…6ebfbacked No | 76c | 170.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…5b8fbacked No | 76c | 170.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…5f71backed No | 76c | 169.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…dd56backed No | 76c | 169.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…7437backed No | 76c | 167.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…7baabacked No | 76c | 167.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…03a8backed No | 76c | 167.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bf…7159backed No | 76c | 166.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e7…0cebbacked No | 76c | 166.27$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…bcb4backed No | 76c | 166.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…78d2backed No | 76c | 165.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…ee29backed No | 76c | 165.65$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc962…b3d9backed No | 76c | 165.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…2462backed No | 76c | 165.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…dfc5backed No | 76c | 164.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…391dbacked No | 76c | 164.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc988…c19fbacked No | 76c | 164.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…6f7abacked No | 76c | 163.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…4131backed No | 76c | 163.61$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…3661backed No | 76c | 163.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…3862backed No | 76c | 162.53$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818a…3408backed No | 76c | 161.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…ccafbacked No | 76c | 160.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…e053backed No | 76c | 158.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…6b73backed No | 76c | 157.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e0…c20ebacked No | 76c | 149.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 12c | 88.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 16c | 66.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 72c | 28.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…a93cbacked No | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?this page
- Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?Yes won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 15 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?No won
- Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.