AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ab17949b3666d038c259fee3d403ea296b08f7b08dccde282d90454ced78057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 18c | 871$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 12c | 849.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 19c | 657$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…e627backed Yes | 31c | 648.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…3c58backed Yes | 49c | 572.19$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 19c | 480$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 80c | 349$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 20c | 349$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 80c | 345$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 22c | 340$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 334.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 12c | 333.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…7102backed Yes | 25c | 281.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 15c | 236.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 199.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ff…1775backed Yes | 14c | 177.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 10c | 171.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…b7cebacked Yes | 32c | 134.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked Yes | 21c | 128.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…36e5backed Yes | 24c | 125.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…f628backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 118.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 75c | 116.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…676bbacked Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 11c | 97.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 80.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…30ccbacked Yes | 19c | 63.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…5c46backed Yes | 23c | 55.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 54.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…82b1backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 41.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 79c | 35.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4276…84e9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…5676backed No | 71c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 15.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.