AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5dd11b0137b9bb53a39d7856388e7fc6d3dc50bb8aeb87e1c8d3bca10e31686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 20c | 1,196$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.1 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 1,156$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.93 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked No | 8c | 999.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 79c | 972$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 16c | 924.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 21c | 792$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 6c | 673.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes | 79c | 637$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 21c | 475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 79c | 475$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 21c | 447$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 22c | 441$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 78c | 441$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 22c | 437$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 78c | 437$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 78c | 415$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 27c | 392$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 73c | 392$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 76c | 319.22$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 68c | 299.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 79c | 298$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed No | 21c | 298$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85e…3c77backed No | 5c | 266.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…0966backed Yes | 76c | 261.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 260.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 79c | 258$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed No | 21c | 258$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642d…3de0backed Yes | 71c | 201.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd446…a5f6backed Yes | 78c | 196.31$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 191.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 164.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 154.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 152.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…1b73backed Yes | 77c | 129.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…f628backed Yes | 71c | 119.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 119.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked No | 11c | 112.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 26c | 103.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…bb56backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 99.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 96.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 19c | 91.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 25c | 89.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 67c | 89.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…f34ebacked Yes | 80c | 86.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 79c | 79.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 24c | 55.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 22c | 55.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6999…933ebacked No | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 53.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f78…f3a0backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b1…d543backed Yes | 73c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 79cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…5f56backed Yes | 76c | 28.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…fdc4backed Yes | 76c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…b9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…b890backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…8098backed Yes | 71c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…136dbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…ca27backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…6b33backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.