Movies · resolved market
Will Nina Hoss win Best Supporting Performance at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1627e1422b346f6d8729a2afd38c15c9bfcb82c0fe573db6a6bfe5324323ff80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 56c | 1,162$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 44c | 903$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 53c | 826$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 47c | 598$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes | 47c | 310$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 53c | 161$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 61c | 81.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 75.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 29c | 40.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 55c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nina Hoss win Best Supporting Performance at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?this page
- Will Naomi Ackie win Best Supporting Performance at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.