Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chris Gober be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f998e774bd4ca91a02d8ca64e32cf88a1b5c5fce239607a3344be17e747a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc58…f6e4backed Yes | 6c | 5,175$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,864.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 15c | 1,139$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 16c | 840$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 16c | 714$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 27c | 694$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 78c | 691.12$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 73c | 583$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 6c | 481.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 14c | 377$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked No | 14c | 370$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 10c | 360.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 341.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 13c | 301$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 240.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 6c | 237.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 46c | 172.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 98.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 66c | 92.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 15c | 75.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 64c | 38.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 75c | 17.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chris Gober be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?this page
- Will Jessica Karlsruher be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?No won
- Will Rob Altman be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?No won
- Will Scott MacLeod be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.