AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1c15e3684808e7d09cc9a9e8078c4d4a873a44cea36f19bf4154fc79d0bcf14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 78c | 994$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 35c | 798.03$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 22c | 562$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 25c | 433.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 22c | 432$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 69c | 413.16$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 26c | 383.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…99c7backed Yes | 26c | 272.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 67c | 260.16$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…7102backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…13dbbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 28c | 97.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…80bebacked Yes | 34c | 88.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 38c | 78.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 64.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 61.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 33c | 44.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 80c | 34.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 78c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 75c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?this page
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.