AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcff83e314b12da0b01c2de476790284982d53ce7727ae010b6d11334ee60da00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 69c | 1,187$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.91 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked Yes | 71c | 828$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 36c | 684$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 77c | 644.42$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.08 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 64c | 639$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed No | 29c | 419$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 77c | 389.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 18c | 372.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 22c | 329.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 59c | 322.75$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.13 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 277.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 271.69$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 29c | 262$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 27c | 153.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 29c | 147$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 19c | 122.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…f299backed Yes | 77c | 98.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 24c | 67.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 65.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 64.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 55.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…6694backed Yes | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b77…80e6backed Yes | 77c | 51.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 68c | 41.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3508…f105backed Yes | 72c | 33.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 67c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…e067backed Yes | 73c | 31.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…266cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…7c79backed Yes | 69c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.