TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Southern Illinois Salukisof Southern Illinois Salukis, Evansville Aces
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,349 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce55…1796backed Evansville Aces40c2,856$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+106.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed Southern Illinois Salukis18c2,416$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick22cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb6…5ea0backed Evansville Aces40c1,883$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Southern Illinois Salukis24c1,847$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+107.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Evansville Aces42c1,504$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.231,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Southern Illinois Salukis36c1,348$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked Southern Illinois Salukis36c1,293$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed Evansville Aces70c1,284$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Southern Illinois Salukis59c1,016$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.623,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c967$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c962$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked Southern Illinois Salukis60c927$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.8475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+377.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked Evansville Aces64c918$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3f…3f83backed Evansville Aces44c916$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.04757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Evansville Aces64c908$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed Southern Illinois Salukis23c852$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd378…7ec9backed Evansville Aces44c820$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bc…0451backed Evansville Aces64c815$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Southern Illinois Salukis23c798$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+114.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Evansville Aces40c714.73$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8989850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…5ebcbacked Evansville Aces45c706$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d4…7e8ebacked Evansville Aces44c682$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Southern Illinois Salukis30c664$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+145.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x782d…12e5backed Evansville Aces44c662$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…b33cbacked Evansville Aces44c661$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick36cpaid+157.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Evansville Aces76c641$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c638$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed Evansville Aces76c629$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked Southern Illinois Salukis60c623$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+193.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c622$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+168.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Southern Illinois Salukis30c620$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdac0…0207backed Evansville Aces44c601$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked Evansville Aces76c577$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed Evansville Aces77c574$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Evansville Aces77c545$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked Evansville Aces80c542$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed Evansville Aces77c531$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54da…fa4cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis56c506$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…e1babacked Southern Illinois Salukis56c460$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa546…fa04backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c458$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.52650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis60c449.1$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.6475447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Southern Illinois Salukis20c443$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+129.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis25c420$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb1…7b5cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis56c410$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd165…7743backed Southern Illinois Salukis55c405$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed Evansville Aces75c396$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Evansville Aces74c370$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe590…87bfbacked Southern Illinois Salukis26c370$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde6e…5de3backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c364$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f7d…99f8backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c364$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.16757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf858…ea6abacked Southern Illinois Salukis56c362$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55f9…3de2backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c359$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Southern Illinois Salukis58c357.76$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis20c336$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bea…2ca3backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c323$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db3…d4c2backed Southern Illinois Salukis55c301$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6e…19d0backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c297$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Evansville Aces41c263.33$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9725946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b0…b96bbacked Southern Illinois Salukis56c237$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.285100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+158.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Evansville Aces77c235$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Southern Illinois Salukis23c235$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Southern Illinois Salukis21c218$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f51…c63cbacked Evansville Aces79c218$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa02f…0726backed Southern Illinois Salukis56c202$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Southern Illinois Salukis55c162.6$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.832,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Southern Illinois Salukis70c142.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7748462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Evansville Aces80c141$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick79cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Southern Illinois Salukis57c117.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.442,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Southern Illinois Salukis21c116$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Evansville Aces30c103.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.891,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Southern Illinois Salukis59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.694,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed Evansville Aces80c96$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Southern Illinois Salukis64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6714643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Southern Illinois Salukis56c78.4$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.341,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Southern Illinois Salukis14c78.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4215556.1%87 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Evansville Aces21c76.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.813554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Evansville Aces34c70.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.111,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9941…7fd9backed Evansville Aces79c67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c59.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.661,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Evansville Aces40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…adb9backed Southern Illinois Salukis79c49.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Evansville Aces79c49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Southern Illinois Salukis57c48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.644,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Southern Illinois Salukis65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1535646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8465…6cd7backed Evansville Aces67c46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6509…4674backed Southern Illinois Salukis33c40.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Southern Illinois Salukis65c30.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5821252.4%111 W · 101 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c34…2055backed Southern Illinois Salukis66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Evansville Aces38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.435650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f8…f29cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis61c27.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b8…0eb0backed Evansville Aces39c27.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Evansville Aces75c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Southern Illinois Salukis58c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.141,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Southern Illinois Salukis58c23.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9722552.9%119 W · 106 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Southern Illinois Salukis65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0526848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84170.7%29 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ba…4d28backed Southern Illinois Salukis60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Southern Illinois Salukis60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf739…8167backed Southern Illinois Salukis62c16.37$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.