World Politics · resolved market
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4b93f270541af213a5f1a9f9e5417c3d569904a0984517fdf3386aaa6899eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 67c | 1,650$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 46c | 1,418$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 46c | 1,291$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 54c | 769$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 54c | 721$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 21c | 479$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 79c | 479$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 54c | 447$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 54c | 418$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 244.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 54c | 231$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 54c | 123$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8e…aab0backed Yes | 53c | 94.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…2e00backed Yes | 53c | 64.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 57.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed No | 57c | 56.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…2a5dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…2622backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Amanda Gardner – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Jackie Pearcy - Lib Dems finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.