World Politics · resolved market
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7f0c236157aabcff9baea44ab55e20ef464870237d94f8108c29d5743c36977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 29c | 618$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 29c | 587$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 71c | 523$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 71c | 399$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 46c | 366.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 244.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed Yes | 35c | 199.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 71c | 188$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 72c | 150.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…2a5dbacked Yes | 42c | 131.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 98.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4a…ae97backed No | 66c | 80.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 29c | 66.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked No | 58c | 51.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6c…bae3backed Yes | 27c | 43.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 36c | 30.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 27.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Amanda Gardner – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?Yes won
- Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Jackie Pearcy - Lib Dems finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.