World Politics · resolved market
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x774fdc4e5f4eb41b15e954c66339840057cc6c06f7231bbf60619e8490162fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 3c | 3,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +604.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 45c | 1,648$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.71 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked No | 49c | 1,025$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 51c | 615$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 55c | 540.28$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 538$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 54c | 515.74$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.24 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 26c | 451$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 51c | 429$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 55c | 407.25$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 57c | 316.74$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 51c | 242$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8e…aab0backed Yes | 67c | 225.86$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 47c | 137.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 76c | 102.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…b084backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…19b2backed No | 34c | 58.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 46c | 44.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 59c | 21.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc751…8c79backed Yes | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?this page
- Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Bev Craig – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
- Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.