Earnings · resolved market
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77471ad1bdea9a9a19b157677d1fe0d8cac45249ae4c674f073ea3ca7a156a61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,570$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 13c | 1,882$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed No | 25c | 1,297$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ed5backed No | 29c | 1,044$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 669$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 78c | 604.21$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.21 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 16c | 599.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 515.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed No | 19c | 489.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 18c | 463.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 10c | 421.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 22c | 359.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 331.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 19c | 282.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 13c | 270.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed No | 18c | 253.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked No | 19c | 212.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 76c | 148.68$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 15c | 137.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes | 79c | 127.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…df88backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 16c | 123.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…b2febacked No | 21c | 109.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…d98bbacked Yes | 80c | 104.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 77c | 99.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c05…857abacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…3508backed No | 17c | 90.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 23c | 76.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 77c | 48.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 79c | 29.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d51…e5f5backed Yes | 80c | 29.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…472ebacked Yes | 80c | 29.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 77c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…ec07backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab1e…fe6ebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c3…22cebacked Yes | 77c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 80c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…bb7dbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.