TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c4,570$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3746314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No13c1,882$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.191526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4b…ab60backed No25c1,297$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.491631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed No29c1,044$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes74c669$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.876137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes78c604.21$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2113960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No16c599.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.983138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No19c515.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.626334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca35…5b58backed No19c489.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8d…13b7backed No18c463.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No10c421.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5621820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed No22c359.32$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.868634.9%30 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No20c331.5$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6733025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No19c282.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4420729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No13c270.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.021533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6434…72b6backed No18c253.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e3…37fabacked No19c212.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522759.3%16 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8598…199fbacked Yes76c148.68$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0a…9229backed Yes72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.211566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No15c137.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes79c127.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7903…df88backed No16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed No16c123.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e72…b2febacked No21c109.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d0…d98bbacked Yes80c104.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+83.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1429024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70a…6a5cbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked No32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.681741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1467442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Yes77c99.6$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.914774.5%35 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick74cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c05…857abacked No21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa5…3508backed No17c90.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4920331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb68f…613fbacked No16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No23c76.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.526725.4%17 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158161.7%50 W · 31 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes77c48.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.233253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211771.8%84 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb12…6a49backed Yes75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes79c29.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.334955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d51…e5f5backed Yes80c29.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…472ebacked Yes80c29.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0529…8909backed Yes77c26.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.012286.4%19 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x905a…75dabacked Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick72cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9118…c706backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.322969%20 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick74cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x307f…ed8dbacked Yes74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a5…ec07backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab1e…fe6ebacked Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe328…9f4abacked Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c3…22cebacked Yes77c19.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes80c18.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.876952.2%36 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63d6…bb7dbacked Yes80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.