Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f846d44d6c0f2e113ae472d5eff7b929a2f2986f4d788eb39e4eb5f7a38249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 42c | 2,667$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.27 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 60c | 1,209$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.29 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 43c | 600$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 549.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 46c | 521.74$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Yes | 68c | 450.9$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…716bbacked Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 222.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 27c | 187.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 59c | 183.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 138.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…df88backed Yes | 33c | 127.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 28c | 85.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…10a8backed Yes | 59c | 60.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…79f4backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 76c | 47.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…48d6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…303bbacked No | 75c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.