Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5a9f4ea1bad0e632333091d09bad16e8d0cb8faf231bdab18a06dcd606e7f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 595.87$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 502.93$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.05 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 14c | 443.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 70c | 393.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 339$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.31 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 15c | 299$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…d107backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 40c | 241.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 78c | 236$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 30c | 226.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 42c | 206$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 204.46$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 33c | 171.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 24c | 158.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 157$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 146.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 128.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 58c | 122.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 77c | 120.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 112.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 30c | 109.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 30c | 69.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 16c | 66.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…303bbacked No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.