Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3320c038ce00df0d9337a4777cd554455c6909b2f394f778c0fd9fd086fcbc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 16c | 5,433$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 4,777$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.39 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed Yes | 15c | 3,404$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 1,217$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 15c | 1,114$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…f6f0backed Yes | 16c | 687.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 16c | 670$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 556.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 359.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 16c | 260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 17c | 235.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 199.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked Yes | 14c | 184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…982fbacked Yes | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 13c | 95.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…eb69backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.