Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf97319fe8784e6253eb98ceaa8eef7775d1b8c3deb41b97f64d69bab0a90687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 6,397$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 23c | 5,771$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,165$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 34c | 2,750$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.98 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…c1a1backed No | 80c | 1,813$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 18c | 1,696$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 18c | 1,122$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 23c | 765.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 15c | 727.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 26c | 671.61$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 613.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 16c | 513.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 20c | 502.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 22c | 453.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 17c | 402.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 24c | 400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 239.71$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 69c | 221.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 19c | 184.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…ef9fbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 114.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked Yes | 19c | 101.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 31c | 95.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 85.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 63c | 64.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…723dbacked Yes | 25c | 58.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…974bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…f6e7backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.