Us Midterms · resolved market
Larger Margin of Victory: Virginia or New Jersey Governor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d92ed05b04c6ae66d6542cdb891e875d8aaa5f776dbd646adf60089ab02811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Virginia, New Jersey
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036e…9276backed New Jersey | 8c | 4,900$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked New Jersey | 0c | 4,611$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked New Jersey | 10c | 3,446$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked New Jersey | 10c | 3,339$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked New Jersey | 2c | 2,985$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked New Jersey | 6c | 1,234$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed New Jersey | 4c | 900.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked New Jersey | 10c | 761.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed New Jersey | 15c | 734.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed New Jersey | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked New Jersey | 10c | 695.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed New Jersey | 8c | 530$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed New Jersey | 9c | 215.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed New Jersey | 11c | 169.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed New Jersey | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8d94backed New Jersey | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.