Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Eric Adams get over 1% in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f39e2e4c81bc285b6c38952ad1f45d2e532573b347fef75e39e18198d048c5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 3,200$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed No | 28c | 2,758$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 21c | 2,487$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.95 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 71c | 854.64$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…d9dabacked Yes | 46c | 795$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 46c | 760.47$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.03 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 561.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.19 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 73c | 510.69$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.8 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked No | 44c | 496.81$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…e72bbacked Yes | 74c | 468.67$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 69c | 400$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 307.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.16 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 42c | 280$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed No | 53c | 280$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 42c | 241.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a7…638fbacked No | 54c | 225$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…693bbacked No | 23c | 218.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +335.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 49c | 207.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…d05ebacked No | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…d421backed No | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…7dc2backed No | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 31c | 165$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 138.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 44c | 103.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…360fbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…83b9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 69c | 87.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 62c | 84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 39c | 66.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…d484backed Yes | 48c | 56.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbd…29bfbacked No | 56c | 53.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed9…4a4fbacked No | 79c | 53.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 48.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 33c | 45.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4b…3f71backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 64c | 38.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 77c | 34.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 70c | 24.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe68…f031backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.