Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5c145324688b080f582c6175c3a5281bf0550fdf339dde9c74c733b575caf8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 22c | 18,462$3,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,485.86 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 28c | 11,090$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,032.12 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 16c | 6,014$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,039.39 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked No | 33c | 3,338$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 21c | 3,203$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,421$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,267$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.55 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 77c | 2,097$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.86 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 34c | 1,783$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 40c | 1,692$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 78c | 1,673$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.24 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,446$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 4c | 1,135$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 71c | 929.27$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.58 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 22c | 885.93$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 71c | 800$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed No | 75c | 776.78$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 77c | 763.53$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 715.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 35c | 686.12$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 20c | 673.76$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…a167backed Yes | 13c | 640$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 32c | 500$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 31c | 499.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 381$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.36 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 43c | 355.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 21c | 351.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.1 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 72c | 268.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 20c | 246$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.81 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 235.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.27 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…9e9cbacked No | 69c | 209$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 18c | 186$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 176.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 141$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870b…6499backed Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 119.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…415ebacked Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 67c | 106.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 25c | 101.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 77.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…7342backed Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 35c | 57.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…49b3backed Yes | 75c | 54.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…2cedbacked No | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…c7d8backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec8…44a2backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa193…8cbebacked No | 75c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c6…39bfbacked No | 75c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…9e84backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaf…6518backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6b…d04abacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…a5efbacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…39bfbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e7…2dd2backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…ebeabacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…dffabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd74b…0db4backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…82a9backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…262dbacked No | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…650fbacked No | 65c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…f58bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90ºC and 0.94ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95ºC and 0.99ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in August 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.