Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6600d3be705f4db2e165496e75623cf83b5f8c3937e84f316adfa6c3d5b81786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 46c | 16,364$7,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,583.86 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 4c | 12,005$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 8,891$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 7c | 4,511$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 27c | 4,156$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.37 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 39c | 2,506$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.72 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 22c | 2,059$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.65 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 7c | 1,885$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 1,492$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 1,445$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd929…216abacked Yes | 6c | 1,140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 42c | 991.37$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 53c | 750$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 667.53$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 75c | 597.07$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 21c | 544$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 543.94$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 35c | 496.87$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 66c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…b032backed Yes | 41c | 381.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 60c | 332.19$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 29c | 331.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…9e7cbacked Yes | 65c | 306.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked No | 52c | 303.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 300.1$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed No | 41c | 291.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 5c | 270.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 259$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 70c | 246$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 9c | 242.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 58c | 236.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 18c | 205.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 64c | 202.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…321abacked Yes | 29c | 157.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 59c | 153.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 47c | 127$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba42…5d88backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…a167backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 58c | 89.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 89.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…deb3backed Yes | 70c | 86.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 36c | 63.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4d…8d5dbacked No | 48c | 60.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…933abacked Yes | 23c | 46.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc237…e340backed Yes | 55c | 41.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…46fabacked Yes | 62c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…727ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…9a26backed No | 48c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…f39bbacked Yes | 56c | 28.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…ee88backed Yes | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90ºC and 0.94ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95ºC and 0.99ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.