Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95ºC and 0.99ºC in August 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74daf5521d05fcaf68661e5865c55a1e82a373251b7531fb43d5962bafad57cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 16,502$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 1c | 11,867$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 3c | 10,244$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.53 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 2c | 6,424$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,397$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.91 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 3c | 2,991$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,933$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 0c | 2,885$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 5c | 2,295$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,741$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 28c | 1,373$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,154$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 877.61$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 675.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 630.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 25c | 600$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 4c | 509.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 450.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 77c | 435.49$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 27c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0f4dbacked No | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 24c | 145.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 20c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 68c | 109$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…a167backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95ºC and 0.99ºC in August 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90ºC and 0.94ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in August 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.